Forecasting Principles
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Evaluating Forecasting Methods
Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted...
متن کاملAgainst Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting
Accurate forecasts are crucial to successful planning in many organizations and in 2001 forty international experts published a set of principles to guide best practice in forecasting. Some of the principles relate to the use management judgment. Almost all organisations use judgment at some stage in their forecasting process, but do they do so effectively? While judgment can lead to significan...
متن کاملThe Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project
It is often claimed that managers do not read serious research papers in journals. If true, this neglect would seem to pose a problem because journals are the dominant source of knowledge in management science. By examining results from the forecasting principles project, which was designed to summarize all useful knowledge in forecasting, we found that journals have provided 89 percent of the ...
متن کاملStandards and Practices for Forecasting
One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is pr...
متن کاملNew Books in Review Principles of Forecasting: a Handbook for Researchers
In the late 1970s, Professor Armstrong wrote a treatise on long-range forecasting that many readers considered irreverent and humorous, albeit very insightful and highly readable (Armstrong 1978). On the basis of a detailed review of the extant empirical research, Armstrong identified, described, and provided an evaluation of the various subjective and objective methods used in forecasting. Wit...
متن کاملExtrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data
Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. This paper provides principles for selecting and preparing data, making seasonal adjustmen...
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تاریخ انتشار 2011